No hole in this donut
I'm still reeling from the revised Census estimate that Cincinnati isn't a shrinking city after all.
It's like those old Saturday Night Live routines in which Emily Litella (Gilda Radner) would rant against "busting schoolchildren" or "sax and violins on TV" or the "deaf penalty," then after getting corrected, Emily would meekly conclude, "Never mind."
Is that what we're supposed to say now? "Never mind? The Census news has produced a role switch in the Hamilton County commissioners race. Now instead of Phil Heimlich blaming David Pepper for "losing" Cincinnati's population, Pepper stepped up blaming Heimlich for "losing" county population out in the "first suburbs."
It reminds me of those old political campaign attacks. Who "lost" China to the Communists? Who "lost" Iran after the Shah?
Just weeks ago, I had to reassure visiting out-of-town friends that Cincinnati wasn't becoming Detroit. This Census re-count should bolster that argument, and I'm really thrilled the Census counters now get it that demolished empty buildings do not equal population loss, and that new condos add people. But how do we convince the rest of the country about Cincinnati?
There's no hole in this donut? Nobody "lost" Cincinnati! It was simply misplaced?
posted by Tony Lang at 3:31 PM
7 Comments:
at 4:37 PM, October 31, 2006 
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at 4:53 PM, October 31, 2006 
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at 5:00 PM, October 31, 2006 
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at 5:11 PM, October 31, 2006 
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at 10:54 AM, November 01, 2006 
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at 1:18 PM, November 01, 2006 
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at 9:23 AM, November 02, 2006 
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Post a Comment*Tony, I'm not sure I understand your comments as factual or "tongue-in-cheek".
Before you're able to convince out-of-towners that Cincinnati is not a declining city, you may need to first convince residence of Greater Cincinnati.
So the rate of decline is not as fast within city limits as first reported. The better comparison is the rate of decline of Cincinnati versus the rate of growth of surrounding counties.
Cincinnati has lost 170,000 residents, over the last 40 years. Surrounding counties have booming populations, residential developments, commercial developments, and entertainment districts, over the past 20+ years.
I prefer to be growing at any rate, than degrading at a more slowly expected rate.
Oops. Gosh, Cincinnati is a success; do we measure success by population growth or shrink? I always like Cincinnati. Recently, I met some people on the Mississippi Queen Tall Stacks Cruise. A comment I liked hearing was "Cincinnati is a real nice city. Cincinnatians should be proud and more appreciative." I am, I am. My comment to them was and to our city "Do we hurt ourselves with negative crtiques, or are we better because we are not quite satisfied and continue to strive for improvement?"
How in the world did you convince anyone Cincinnati isn't becoming Detroit? Drive them around Indian Hill all day?
Bravo, Tony!
"...how do we convince the rest of the country about Cincinnati?"
We begin, I think, by getting out the story that Cincinnati is not in decay, has turned a corner, and is building positive momentum. We can now point to some convincing facts.
As for the rest of us, the local perception, I think it will take at least two things:
1. Some real successes - Bengals wins, Banks development, visible reduction in violent crime, election in the rearview mirror, measurable improvement in CPS, completed developments around Fountain Square and in OTR, and a few "hat over the wall" challenges" and,
2. Help from local media (specifically television) to avoid the urge to find bad news, drama and conflict to boost ratings. I bet people will tune in even if fewer car wrecks are reported on the evening news. People believe (generally) what they see on the news and read in the paper. A little effort there may very well go a long way to help us heal our self-image. I think The Enquirer has done a great job on the census story to get us moving in that direction.
Chris Bortz
City Council
Your comments about Cincinnati's population gain of 27 people during the 2000-2005 period reflects what one can expect from a number-dumb society which has become infatuated with Top 10 lists. Or perhaps a community that is so starved for good news, it will latch on to anything to celebrate.
During each of the years between the extensive data gathering done every 10 years, the Census Bureau makes population estimates based upon models requiring very limited actual data gathered from surveys and questionnaires.
Do you really think the accuracy of these estimates can distinguish 27 people at the 300,000 level?
Do you really believe these interim estimates are accurate to within thousandths of a percent (which is what you get when you divide 27 by 300,000)?
I don't, and neither should you if you had given it any thought.
But why let the margin of error of these estimates spoil your celebration? Who knows....we might have gained 300 people...or lost 300 people.
Only politicians and editorial writers would run out and celebrate the face value of a number that obviously has nothing to do with reality.
Gosh, I love living in my nice suburbs so I can just shake my head at you crazy Cincinnati dwelling folks.
When you have to dodge bullets, it's time to get out.
City Council and Mr. Bortz should be proud of their accomplishments over the past 20+ years, especially the last 5 days.
In fact we should celebrate with higher property and sales taxes. Hasn't this formula been successful in bringing new businesses and jobs to the city?
We need to pay for that beautiful $42 million statue move and TV screen at Fountain Square. Let’s raise parking rates and service fees too. Council sure knows how to spend your money and get the best “bang for your buck”.
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